F/m Investments this week (article dated July 18, 2026) released “WarshGPT,” an AI-powered tool that parses nearly 1,800 documents and transcripts from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to help users understand how he may analyze economic and monetary policy issues.
Why now: Warsh (took post in May) has overhauled forward-looking Fed communication, prompting investors who decode “Fedspeak” to prepare for less public guidance. One of Warsh’s task forces focuses on how the central bank communicates.
WarshGPT product details:
- Built with Anthropic’s Claude for less than $1,000; roughly two weeks from inception to release.
- Pre-rollout testing included Fed alumni and newsletter writers.
- Also taps economic and political history for context.
- Limits: does not talk as Warsh; will not offer forward statements or forecasts.
- F/m manages ETFs tied to inflation and U.S. Treasurys; CEO Alexander Morris: firm made a business of decoding Fedspeak and Warsh “said he was going to go quiet on us.”
Evidence of quieter Fed:
- June FOMC statement under Warsh ~130 words vs prior publications often above 300 words (CNBC analysis); Warsh said it was shorter/simpler and excluded forward guidance.
- UBS: Warsh allocated 5% of sentences to policy-relevant topics in first post-decision press conference vs 27% average under Jerome Powell.
Other firm adaptations: UBS interactive dashboard for Fed policy tone; JPMorgan Asset Management would lean more on FOMC member speeches if “dot plot” ends. Economists warn less clarity may increase market volatility after decisions; some see alpha opportunity. CME FedWatch ~59% odds of September hike vs Kalshi traders favoring unchanged rates.